The speed of the asteroid is significantly increasing due to the Yarkovsky Effect. This phenomenon occurs when an asteroid's thermal radiation is uneven, causing some parts to heat up more quickly than others.
Scientists had initially forecasted that Apophis would merely pass by Earth in 2068, based on its previous velocity. However, the Yarkovsky effect complicates predictions of its trajectory over time.
This effect could slightly alter the asteroid's path, leading scientists to acknowledge the possibility of a collision with Earth.
Dave Tholen, a researcher at the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii and co-author of the upcoming study, elaborates:
“Without taking Yarkovsky drift into account, Apophis is still a threatening object, just not in 2068. With Yarkovsky taken into account, the 2068 impact scenario is still in play. Small, but non-zero.”
The risk is minimal, but scientists insist that the asteroid requires monitoring. It ranks as the third-highest threat on NASA's Sentry Risk Table, with a 1 in 150,000 (or 0.00067%) chance of colliding with Earth on April 12, 2068.
Events like this occur approximately every 80,000 years. The asteroid, spanning more than three football fields and composed of nickel and iron, could unleash energy equivalent to 1,151 megatons of TNT if it impacts Earth.
In conclusion, despite the low risk, the possibility remains. Scientists will keep a close watch on Apophis over the coming decades, ensuring we're prepared to act should it threaten significant destruction.
The upcoming DART mission by NASA and SpaceX will test a small spacecraft's ability to alter an asteroid's course by collision, serving as a trial for future strategies to divert potentially dangerous asteroids.